In the figure below the blue line indicates the time trend in the percentage of responses favoring independence (excluding undecided and those not voting) in the polls. The probability distribution, shown in red on the right-hand side of the figure, indicates the predicted share of votes for Scottish independence on referendum day. Our forecast suggests the odds of a Yes vote for independence are fading fast. The forecast is now centered at 47 percent with the 95 percent predictive interval ranging from 44 percent to 51 percent. This differs substantially from our forecast approximately three weeks ago, reflecting this sharp movement in the polls. The probability that Yes campaign will obtain more than 50 percent of the vote is now only just above 5 percent.
With five more weeks of the campaign to go, and another TV debate on Aug. 25, there is still scope for more late movements in public opinion. However, our latest forecast suggests that the pro-independence campaign is fighting an uphill battle.