We noted nine months ago that taking account of these fundamentals made the Republicans favored to take the Senate. The quality of the candidates that the GOP has recruited only increased their odds of winning. In fact, when we debuted Election Lab on May 5, we estimated at that point that the GOP had a 77 percent chance of winning and was predicted to win 53 seats. We predict 53 seats again today. The only change is that Michigan and Colorado are flipped relative to that earlier forecast.
And so this leaves us with the last graph, courtesy of Vox. Although the forecasting models differ in how certain they are in a GOP Senate majority, they see a very similar picture in terms of the most likely outcome: