The 2016 election has confounded any number of political observers, and not a few of the candidates as well. Even now, months into the campaign, there is still substantial uncertainty about who will be the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees, to say nothing of who will emerge victorious in November.
Good Judgment is devoted to improving the science of forecasting. They have found that ordinary people can be excellent forecasters — even “Super Forecasters.” Moreover, they have found that “crowd-sourcing” among thousands of interested observers can also produce forecasts that are more accurate than any other indicator.
Quality forecasts will be particularly important for the 2016 election. The kinds of indicators that dominate news coverage and political conversation — mainly poll numbers — are not always good predictors, particularly well before an election. And, needless to say, garden-variety pundits can be worse.
Participants in our tournament will be asked a series of questions over the 2016 election cycle. We’ll begin with the presidential election, including the Iowa caucus, New Hampshire primary, and eventual nominees.
Later on, participants will predict which party will control the Senate and House of Representatives after the November election. As the year unfolds, we’ll be adding more questions, including about the most competitive Senate and gubernatorial races.
By joining the tournament, you’ll not only be helping the overall forecast, but you’ll get to track your own forecasts throughout the year and see how well you stack up to the polls and pundits.
On The Monkey Cage, we’ll be regularly featuring updated forecasts and deep dives into the forecasting data.
So please join us! You can click here to register and make your initial forecasts.