First, lawmakers are ever the “single-minded seekers of re-election” that Yale political scientist David Mayhew identified about 40 years ago. The better President Obama performed in a member’s district in 2012, the more likely he or she is to abandon Trump. Indeed, for the roughly two dozen GOP congressional members who represent districts Obama won, about half have jumped ship. (Not surprisingly, the jumpers tend to be far more moderate ideologically than their GOP colleagues.) Put simply, the more Democratic your voters, the more likely you are to jump ship.
October 9, 2016 at 8:37 PM EDT