So what do these people think about Trump? Here’s the graph:
As of Nov. 3, those who thought Brexit was at least somewhat likely — only 215 of the 1,740 — give Trump a 30 percent chance of winning. Those who thought Brexit was at least somewhat unlikely give him only a 15 percent chance.
That’s a clear difference between 15 percent and 30 percent, of course. Indeed, the 30 percent number isn’t that different from the much-maligned 538 forecast, which gives Trump about a 35 percent chance.
But 30 percent is still more unlikely than likely. Moreover, as this summary at Good Judgment describes, the forecasters who “called” Brexit correctly were less accurate across a range of forecasting questions besides Brexit, compared with those who doubted Brexit. This could mean the 30 percent figure is even less noteworthy. Maybe we can call it “Brexit minus”?