The fighting came after clashes on Saturday in Kasese and attacks on police after royal guards reportedly threw an IED at security patrols. On Sunday morning, President Yoweri Museveni called on King Mumbere to surrender his royal guards and prevent further violence. The king — who has consistently rejected allegations of a move for a separate state or the existence of the militia — failed to oblige, and security forces raided the palace. By Tuesday morning, the weekend’s death toll in the district had risen to 126.
Other skirmishes last week left eight suspected militia members dead when security forces cleared a suspected training camp of the Bakonzo militia, reportedly a group vying for an independent Yira State for the Bakonzo people and their fellow tribesmen in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Banande. Both Kasese and Bundibugyo districts, in the Rwenzururu heartland, saw large-scale clashes between security forces and civilians in July 2014 (100 deaths) and March 2016 (50 deaths).
But with no credible investigations of previous clashes, the identity and motives of those instigating violence in earlier years remain murky. The region’s recurring conflicts likely reflect long-standing tensions in the region, exaggerated by the government’s patronage policies and militarized responses to violence.
A long history of ethnic struggle in Western Uganda
This region has a long history of armed resistance involving minority ethnic groups struggling for recognition. In colonial times, the Bakonzo ethnic group felt marginalized and oppressed by the Tooro kingdom. In 1962, the Bakonzo (together with the Bamba, another marginalized ethnic group) launched the Rwenzururu rebellion, seeking to establish an independent kingdom. This conflict helped give rise to the NALU rebel group, which later joined up with the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF).
It is important to understand that kingdom recognition and the creation of districts are the result of the government’s patronage politics, in which the state and its resources are used to consolidate the regime’s power, particularly for electoral reasons. Control over Uganda’s districts and kingdoms means control over public funds and land — as well as political representation and mobilization.
So the recognition of the kingdom was an apparent attempt by the Ugandan government to swing the votes in a region that had overwhelmingly voted opposition. It didn’t work — the region still voted for the opposition in the 2011 general elections and the creation of the new kingdom created new tensions.
Recognizing the Rwenzururu kingdom created new problems
On the one hand, minority tribes in the region — the Bamba and the Basongora — now claimed separate kingdoms of their own: the Rwenzururu kingdom was regarded as a representation of the majority Bakonzo, rather than all ethnic groups of the region. Other tribes therefore sought to establish their own kingdoms. On the other hand, the Bakonzo saw these other kingdoms as a deliberate strategy of the government to limit the influence of the Rwenzururu kingdom. All actions of the government were therefore perceived as an intentional divide-and-rule plan to weaken their power. This led to major tensions.
In June 2014, President Museveni yielded to the demands of the region’s second-largest group, and granted recognition to the Bamba kingdom in Bundibugyo district. Weeks later, Bakonzo youth staged attacks in various localities, triggering reprisal killings and counter-operations by security forces. The government arrested hundreds of suspected attackers, mainly Bakonzo youth and a handful of Rwenzururu kingdom officials, and charged them before military tribunals — but eventually let them go.
No in-depth investigation into what happened took place, and there was no substantive reconciliation initiated between the various actors involved in the conflict. Instead, the government increased its military and security presence, and largely delegated the peace process to the kingdoms themselves. In doing so, the government has overemphasized the ethnic character of the conflict, and has left wider frustrations with the national government — a main cause for the 2014 attacks — unaddressed.
After the February 2016 general election, deadly violence returned after disputed local council elections in two areas. The government blamed an alleged militia loyal to the Rwenzururu king. And local politicians instead blamed the government and police for raising tensions when they deployed security forces in the region.
Land conflicts and marginalization are common
Underlying these tensions are feelings of marginalization: various ethnic groups feel their communities are left out of employment opportunities or access to land. Land conflicts — including agriculturalists vs. cattle-keepers, land grabbing, tribal migration issues — are rife in Kasese, the country’s fifth-most populous district. Fueling these land conflicts are feelings of neglect: The Bakonzo believe the government favors other ethnic groups (such as the Bamba). “Ethnic” land tensions are a translation of frustrations with the Ugandan government and its perceived favoritism.
Furthermore, high numbers of unemployed youth mean that opportunity costs to engage in violence are low. At the same time, traditional mechanisms of conflict resolution through elders have lost influence.
So the existence of the Rwenzururu kingdom in combination with perceived marginalization by all ethnic groups involved has created an explosive situation. All sides of the conflict remain locked into their traditional roles and actions — the kingdom(s) seek to portray their symbolic power, while the government continues to rely on a combination of military power and patronage. In doing so, the government is primarily trying to consolidate the regime’s electoral power, but is further invigorating the Bakonzo’s frustrations with its perceived divide-and-rule policy. Both mechanisms continue to add fuel to the fire, rather than dousing the tensions. In October, for instance, the Rwenzururu kingdom celebrated its 50th anniversary, but denied security forces access to the ceremonial grounds. In turn, security forces stepped up their patrols in Kasese.
Addressing the root causes — through in-depth investigations into recent events and dialogue between all concerned parties — is key to resolving the current situation. A strictly military solution and short-term electoral calculations are likely to further fuel tensions rather than restore stability.
Anna Reuss is a Kampala-based political and security analyst. She is pursuing her PhD at the Universities of Ghent and Antwerp. You can follow her on Twitter.