As part of our “Trump’s First 100 Days” forecasting tournament with Good Judgment, we have asked forecasters this question: “Will legislation removing the individual mandate to purchase health insurance be signed before 30 April 2017?” This captures one key, and controversial, element of the Affordable Care Act.
There have been about 850 forecasts in the past two months. Here’s what those forecasters say:
The overall trend is clear: an increase in the probability of repeal by April 30. But at the same time, the current probability — 65 percent — hardly suggests a certainty. Put it this way: it’s like asking Chris Webber to take a free throw. His accuracy is better than a coin flip . . . but not that much better.
Equally interesting is how little the forecast has changed over the past few weeks, despite the headlines suggesting differing prospects for ACA repeal. This suggests that forecasters had already incorporated something like the use of reconciliation into their forecast. Or they may perceive that some events, perhaps these potentially balky Senators, are actually not important enough to alter the forecast.
Of course, this will be an issue worth watching. The forecast will be live through April 30. You’re welcome to add your prediction here.