Current polls have the race neck-and-neck.
To help turn those polls — and other information about the race — into a forecast, we can turn to the State of the Union forecasting tournament that we have been running with the folks at Good Judgment.
Over the past 10 days, there have been almost 150 forecasts for this race. The current estimate is that it’s very close, with a 55 percent chance for Ossoff and 45 percent for Handel. That is essentially a coin flip. The narrowing of the forecast during this period mirrors the narrowing in the polls.
One thing to keep in mind: The outcome is of course important, but it’s not the only important thing. Even a narrow Democratic loss would send encouraging signals for the party’s fortunes in the 2018 midterms. And, as Nate Silver rightly noted, the key is really how the two parties interpret the outcome, no matter who wins, and what decisions those interpretations lead them to make.