Although few would criticize the practice of deporting criminals, our research finds that this component of border control policy generates a vicious cycle. Deportations return criminals to their home countries. In some cases, those deported criminals help develop and extend criminal networks used to traffic drugs, weapons, and people. This, in turn, increases the frequency of violent crime in those countries — which sends more people fleeing those countries and migrating to the United States.
Violence drives people away from several Latin American nations
Here is how U.S. immigration policy contributes to this
Given that violence is a primary reason so many migrants leave Latin America for the United States, our research explores what factors increase the violence in these countries. One factor has received little attention: The United States’ deportation of criminal offenders spreads violence to Latin America.
Across countries and over time, violent crime has many causes. Some factors include whether countries had a history of civil wars, their levels of inequality and the strength of their political systems. After accounting for all the factors that might explain different levels of violence in a country, we still find that violence — measured as the annual number of homicides per capita — increases significantly as a country receives more convicts deported from the United States.
Our statistical results are striking: On average, when a country receives 10 convicts for each of its 100,000 residents, roughly two more people are murdered per 100,000 inhabitants.
To illustrate, consider the case of Honduras. In 2012, Honduras received an extremely high rate of deportees: 162 per 100,000 residents. Honduras experienced a very high homicide rate that year, with 93 murders per 100,000 residents. Our empirical analysis suggests the presence of these deported criminals accounts for approximately one-third of the reported homicides.
Notably, we find this effect comes only when criminals are deported. Deporting non-criminals has no statistical effect on a country’s rate of violence.
The roots of Central American gang violence lie in the U.S.
To better understand the link between deportation and violence, let’s look at El Salvador. This small Central American country has a Salvadoran-born diaspora in the United States estimated at 1.2 million, or roughly a fifth the size of its resident population of 6.3 million. Two rival gangs, the MS-13 (Mara Salvatrucha) and the 18th Street gang, have turned the country into one of the most violent places on Earth. Both gangs originated in Los Angeles, home to a large Salvadoran community.
Because Salvadorans have been involved in crime, the United States has deported criminals to El Salvador at a high rate since the mid-1990s. By 2015, the cumulative number of U.S.-deported convicts in El Salvador reached 95,000, or roughly 1.5 percent of the country’s population.
What is the takeaway?
Deporting convicts increased homicide rates in migrants’ countries of origin. Criminal offenders returned to violent regions with limited opportunities, where governments are already having difficulties enforcing criminal laws. It’s hardly surprising, then, that convicts return to criminal and violent activities.
Once violence increases, more people flee. Deportation policies thus don’t merely affect deportees’ countries of origin. It also creates a vicious migration cycle by pushing more people away from their homes.
Christian Ambrosius (@cuauhtemaco) is a lecturer at the Institute for Latin American Studies and the School of Business and Economics at Freie Universität Berlin and visiting professor at the National Autonomous University (UNAM) in Mexico City.
David Leblang (@realDLeblang) is Ambassador Henry J. Taylor Professor of Politics and Professor of Public Policy at the University of Virginia and a senior fellow at the Miller Center of Public Affairs.