It’s too soon to tell how the past two days of bad news have affected President Trump’s numbers. Gallup’s most recent daily tracking shows Trump with 38 percent job approval, although that number is both a three-day average (meaning it extends back to Sunday) and also awfully volatile.
What’s worth noting, though, is that coming into this tumultuous period, Trump already had received some of the lowest approval numbers of his presidency.
The short version of the story? The approval average is now near the low Trump has seen during his presidency, at 39.9 percent approval. (The low was on April 3, at 39.8 percent.) What’s more, he has been above 50 percent in individual polls only twice over the past two months — out of 168 polls in total. In only six of those polls have more people approved of his job performance than disapproved.
You’ll notice that one of those two over-50 polls is marked as being from Politico. It’s actually a Politico-Morning Consult poll. Morning Consult released new numbers Wednesday, finding that Trump’s approval was at a new low for its survey, 42 percent.
What’s more, the RealClearPolitics average now shows the biggest gap between those who approve and those who disapprove since Trump took office. His approval rating is more than 15 points underwater, as they say, meaning that the percent of Americans who disapprove of the job he’s doing is 15 percentage points higher than those who approve.
This is just two sets of data. FiveThirtyEight has its own tracking system that weights the quality of the poll. How’s Trump doing there? Not great.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 16, 2017
Again: This is before the revelations of the past two days are fully factored in. Once they are, one of three things will necessarily happen: His numbers will go up, will stay flat or will go down. If they go up, it’s probably a sign that his argument that he’s unfairly targeted is working. If it stays flat, it’s probably a sign that Trump’s support is down to the core that powered him through the primaries and general election. And if it goes down — which the smart money that has been so wrong lately would suggest — it may mean that Trump’s core of support is eroding a bit.
And if that’s the case, Republicans on Capitol Hill might start reconsidering their willingness to go to bat for the Republican in the White House.