So did the Dow Jones industrial average, which is also seeing an extended bull market.
The indexes have been on the upswing for about 2,150 days on which the markets were open — more than 3,000 days in total. That’s longer than bull markets from 1949 to 1956 and the market that collapsed spectacularly in 1987.
President Trump likes to take credit for the market’s performance — now. That wasn’t always the case.
When he announced his candidacy for the presidency, the S&P had risen by nearly 200 percent since 2009; the Dow was up more than 170 percent. Lost in Trump’s comments that day (thanks to the attention paid to his comments about Mexican immigrants) was disparagement of the bull market.
“We have a stock market that, frankly, has been good to me, but I still hate to see what’s happening,” he said at the end of his speech. “We have a stock market that is so bloated. Be careful of a bubble because what you’ve seen in the past might be small potatoes compared to what happens. So be very, very careful.”
The market did dip a few weeks later — but then rose again. In early 2016, another fall — and then another rise.
(Note that the rate of the increase in the market from the Feb. 11 lows has been pretty consistent relative to the beginning of the bull market.)
Between the low in February 2016 and now, the S&P has risen 37 percent and the Dow has risen 42.9 percent. Over the same number of market days before Trump’s announcement speech, the S&P had increased by only 18.9 percent and the Dow had risen by 14.6 percent.
Trump framed that prior run as a bubble as a means of disparaging President Barack Obama. He frames the current run as a sign that the economy is responding well to his presidency. But if an increase of 15 or 19 percent over 400-plus days of market activity is a bubble, how are rises of 43 and 37 percent unquestionable signs of economic health?
The real question is the one posed in the headline. This bull market will end at some point. When it does, who will Trump claim bears the responsibility?