Welcome to The Daily Trail -- a new newsletter that replaces Politics P.M. as your source for the latest campaign news of the day.
MANCHESTER -- The race may have moved into a new stage today -- but it was Groundhog Day, when the past repeats itself in a maddening loop, so there was an eerily familiar feel. Hillary Clinton, suddenly looking vulnerable to a surging insurgent, headed to New Hampshire in search of another comeback. An evangelical outsider, fresh off an Iowa caucuses win, exited the Midwest and entered notably less-friendly New England, as Ted Cruz embarked on an ambitious Granite State schedule -- but hedged his bets with an evening event in South Carolina.
As the day ends, a reminder that with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both definitely seeing their shadows, it's looking likely we may face at least six more weeks of campaigning.
Hillary Clinton didn't have much time to savor her Iowa win, settling in for the bigger fight here in New Hampshire, Abby Phillip reported from Nashua. "I'm so thrilled that I’m coming to New Hampshire after winning Iowa!" she told a Nashua crowd today, as she was officially designated the Democratic winner in Iowa.
The Sanders team -- asking (unsuccessfully, so far) for a review of the razor-thin Iowa vote -- might take issue with the latter half of the statement. Nobody can argue with the first half. There are few people happier to be away from Iowa today than Hillary Clinton.
Sanders officials are still trying to make the Democratic version of #NewYorkValues an issue in the race, sending out yet another statement accusing Clinton of "dissing the Big Apple" by not signing on to a primary season debate there. (Subject line: "Hillary Clinton to New York City: NO!") Meanwhile, preparations swung into high gear for this week's two newly-scheduled events here in New Hampshire: the CNN forum tomorrow night and an MSNBC debate Thursday.
FLIPGATE UPDATE: First came reports that Clinton had won half a dozen caucus night coin flips that helped determine the winner in especially close precincts. Then came a Snap that appeared to show a Sanders supporter coming out on top in at least one. The Democratic Party of Iowa may be unwilling to revisit one set of results, but make of this what you will: they're now saying Sanders actually won 6 of 7 known coin flips, reports the Des Moines Register. At the same time, the Register's reporting has the count at 6-1 so far -- in Clinton's favor. Stay tuned.
One Iowa gift to Clinton: outside expectations have been... adjusted.
At this point, if Clinton loses New Hampshire by 50 points it will be seen as outperforming.— Philip Bump (@pbump) February 2, 2016
Today, a litany of missed projections raises the question...is the groundhog industry in trouble?— Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) February 2, 2016
On the GOP side, a new narrative reached full flower today -- the idea that Trump's loss, despite a caucus turnout more than 50 percent higher than the previous record, signifies the rise of a demographic potentially as passionate as any Trump supporter: the anti-Trump voter. "Iowans didn't just vote for Cruz," wrote Trump foe John Podhoretz in the New York Post. "They denied Trump."
It's a new world, say Trump opponents. The front-runner's loss in Iowa will depress his healthy lead here in New Hampshire -- and his supporters, who have been drawn to a man who seemed incapable of being defeated.
So on the trail in New Hampshire today, Jeb Bush cheerfully directed at Trump the one hit that seems to land hardest: "loser."
Meanwhile, Marco Rubio was ready for his close-up.
To celebrate his Iowa showing, the Rubio-supporting Conservative Solutions PAC celebrated "Marcomentum" (VIDEO):
Rubio looks to turn Iowa finish into NH momentum. pic.twitter.com/B40YHBSrTa— Dan Balz (@danbalz) February 2, 2016
It was all enough to leave some wondering if the Florida senator was acting, well... maybe a little too triumphant for a guy who just came in third, reports Callum Borchers.
Does—does Marco Rubio realize he came in third?— Matt Fuller (@MEPFuller) February 2, 2016
Politics: Guy who finished 3rd won. Woman who finished 1st lost. One guy who finished 2nd lost; other guy who finished 2nd won #IowaCaucus— Manuel Roig-Franzia (@RoigFranzia) February 2, 2016
For actual caucus winner Ted Cruz, the good news was that he just won the Iowa Republican caucuses! The bad news might just be... that he just won the Iowa Republican caucuses in a way that looks very similar to how Mike Huckabee won in 2008 and Rick Santorum won in 2012.
With a much tougher hill to climb in New Hampshire than Trump did in Iowa, the Cruz team isn't publicly counting on Trump to fall far. (Senior adviser Rick Tyler to the Post's Katie Zezima on the campaign's New Hampshire expectations: "No, I don’t expect to win. No.")
Team Bush -- whose talking points today played up the strength of their New Hampshire ground game, much as the Cruz team did ahead of Monday's vote -- may not have had an election night to brag about, but didn't sound all that unhappy with the evening's results.
From Bush team: "national media has said Donald Trump cannot be stopped. They were wrong about him..."— Ed O'Keefe (@edatpost) February 2, 2016
WHILE YOU WERE WORKING: The former lawyer for the ‘D.C. Madam’ says names in her records could be ‘relevant’ to election, reports the Reliable Source.
FROM THE FIELD: FEELING FLINTY Today began with the quadrennial saga of the overnight Des Moines to Manchester journey -- and the just-as-familiar reporter chronicles of their travel woes as they headed east.
Spending this morning in my favorite possible way, sitting on an airplane that isn't going anywhere in Des Moines— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) February 2, 2016
You win, Iowa. Plane is going back to gate. We aren't getting out.— James Oliphant (@jamesoliphant) February 2, 2016
Others had a smoother exit.
Sanders greets supporters in New Hampshire at 5 am, after overnight flight from Des Moines. pic.twitter.com/uXiSH3AgOx— Ryan Lizza (@RyanLizza) February 2, 2016
Once he got here, Ted Cruz barely had time to savor his victory.
Reporter shouts as Cruz leaves "DO YOU HAVE THE BIG MO SENATOR?" #WhatAboutYourMentum— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) February 2, 2016
It's perhaps a bit unfair to expect candidates to generate fresh jokes for every locale. After all, the audiences Ted Cruz delivers the lines to are completely different.
The reporters trailing him, however, are not.
Ted Cruz to packed church: "Y'all treat politics in NH like we treat football in Texas" pic.twitter.com/ODyE14GyCZ— Eric Moskowitz (@GlobeMoskowitz) February 2, 2016
Ted Cruz a day or two ago: “Y’all treat politics in IOWA like we treat football in Texas." https://t.co/LL0nzn8CK2— Matt Viser (@mviser) February 2, 2016
Bernie Sanders was greeted on (almost) home turf:
Keene, NH, greets Bernie Sanders pic.twitter.com/GHzKEatMND— John Wagner (@WPJohnWagner) February 2, 2016
THE NIGHTLY TRAIL: Donald Trump -- who was endorsed tonight by former Massahusetts senator and current New Hampshire resident Scott Brown -- is holding a rally in Milford, N.H.
Jeb Bush will hold an event across the state in Hanover.
And Ted Cruz is looking ahead, spending the night in South Carolina.
Rubio about to get the flower guy treatment pic.twitter.com/ErU9lJ6Yd4— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) February 2, 2016