Top Republican strategist Karl Rove is warning the GOP not to pat itself on the back too much when it comes to their special election win in Florida's 13th District on Tuesday.

From the Wall Street Journal:

To Republicans, a word of caution over the special election in Florida's 13th congressional district: Don't uncork the champagne.

David Jolly's victory on Tuesday over Democrat Alex Sink by 48.4%-46.6% is significant. President Obama won the district twice, and its changing political demographics make it Democratic-leaning—despite being held for 42 years by C.W. "Bill" Young, a popular Republican, until his death last fall. Still, special elections don't always dictate how midterms turn out.

There were 10 special congressional elections in the two years leading up to the 2010 midterms: The GOP flipped one Democratic seat, Democrats took away one Republican seat, and the remaining eight seats retained the status quo. In the four special elections held in the two years leading up to the 2006 midterms, both parties retained their seats. Yet Democrats took the House in 2006, and Republicans took it back in 2010's epic sweep.

To read the rest of Rove's piece, click here (pay wall).