Congratulations, Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett (R). You've won the title of most vulnerable governor in America. And it's not even close.
A new Quinnipiac University survey illustrates the scope of Corbett's troubles. He trails Democratic challenger Tom Wolf by 24 points, 59 percent to 35 percent, among those likeliest to vote. More than half (51 percent) of Wolf voters say their vote is more anti-Corbett than pro-Wolf.
Incumbents hardly ever face numbers that stunningly bad. Statewide candidates as damaged as Corbett typically opt against running for reelection.
Not only are more than 90 percent of Democrats against Corbett, so are 53 percent of independents and a remarkable 28 percent of Republicans. The vast majority of likely voters (84 percent) say their mind is made up -- suggesting that, short of an epic collapse by Wolf, Corbett will be looking for a new job next year.
The Quinnipiac poll is not a fluke. A recent Franklin and Marshall College survey showed the governor trailing Wolf by 25 points.
Why is Corbett so unpopular? Education spending cuts is one big reason he's faced a backlash on the left. The right has been frustrated he hasn't pursued a more ambitious conservative agenda. And his handling of the investigation into the Penn State child sexual abuse scandal as attorney general has come under heavy scrutiny and criticism.
In The Fix's most recent rankings, the next three most vulnerable governors after Corbett were Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R), Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) and Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn (D). None are anywhere near as bad off as the Pennsylvania Republican.
According to Real Clear Politics' polling average, Scott is leading Democratic challenger Charlie Crist by 1.6 percentage points. LePage, who is in a three-way race, is down by an average of 3.3 points in recent polls. Quinn trails his Republican challenger by an average of 7 points.
It's shaping up as a tough cycle for governors. Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) was recently beaten badly in his primary. As Reid Wilson noted last month, at least half a dozen governors in states where their party is in power face competitive campaigns. Among them: Connecticut Gov. Dan Malloy (D), who trails his Republican challenger by six points, according to Quinnipiac.
But nobody is feeling the heat quite like Corbett, who is on a course to make history for the wrong reasons: No Pennsylvania governor in the modern era has lost a bid for reelection. Yet.