Clinton was the overall winner of the Nevada caucuses, winning 52.6 percent support to Sanders’s 47.3 percent.
In one of the bigger surprises of the day, entrance polling conducted by Edison Media Research suggested that Sanders won the Hispanic vote by a margin of 8 percentage points.
The Clinton campaign disputed that possibility, pointing to heavily Latino precincts where the former secretary of state outperformed the Vermont senator.
Tulchin said Tuesday that his polling, conducted shortly before the caucuses, showed Sanders up among likely Latino participants by 6 percentage points. Moreover, he said, his polling had Clinton leading Sanders overall by 5.3 percentage points — nearly identical to the actual result.
Therefore, Tulchin reasoned, it’s perfectly plausible that Edison’s numbers were on the mark. At campaign events in recent days, Sanders has continued to tell audience that he won the Latino vote.
Tulchin said the Clinton camp’s reasoning is flawed because Latino voters live around the entire state, not just in precincts where they are a heavy presence.
He pointed to the precinct where the University of Nevada, Reno is located. Latinos make up only about 20 percent of that precinct, Tulchin said. But Sanders demonstrated widespread appeal among younger voters regardless of race, he said. Accordingly, Sanders picked up a great deal of Latino support around the university, even though it wouldn’t be considered a heavily Hispanic area, he said.