And this brings us to the Trump administration’s two latest diplomatic blunders. The first was the attempt by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to provide the Plan B on Iran that was so clearly lacking when President Trump pulled out of it. Pompeo’s scheduled speech at the Heritage Foundation on Monday was supposed to provide it.
Spoiler alert: It didn’t. Pompeo’s speech did what every Trump administration official on Iran has done:
- Complain about the flaws of the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (the Iran nuclear deal);
- Create a vision board of an Iran that does everything the United States wants (even Pompeo acknowledged that his 12-point plan of what Iran had to do was “pretty long”);
- Handwave the part about how that will happen.
To be fair, Pompeo said a few things. Here’s the gist of it:
First, we will apply unprecedented financial pressure on the Iranian regime. The leaders in Tehran will have no doubt about our seriousness ….Second, I will work closely with the Department of Defense and our regional allies to deter Iranian aggression ….Third, we will also advocate tirelessly for the Iranian people. The regime must improve how it treats its citizens. It must protect the human rights of every Iranian. It must cease wasting Iran’s wealth abroad.
That’s it. Even Pompeo acknowledged that U.S. allies would not necessarily agree to support all of this. He failed to mention China or Russia at all. As Vox’s Alex Ward notes, not much has changed in the last six months of Trump administration pronouncements on this question.
The Trump administration is hoping for the foreign policy equivalent of lucking into an inside straight. They hope that renewed sanctions can tip Iran’s civil society into open revolt and destabilize the regime. I’ll leave it to the Iran experts to assess the likelihood of that outcome. As a sanctions expert, I will say this: Trump has given Iran’s theocratic regime the perfect scapegoat to offer up to explain Iran’s stagnant economy. Now everything can be blamed on the renewed sanctions, rather that Iran’s indigenous dysfunctions.
Kinetic diplomacy crowding out coercive diplomacy is not unique to this administration; that was a long time coming. Implementing a coercive strategy without understanding the necessary conditions for it to work in Iran? That is all on this White House.