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The Energy 202: Four numbers that will impact Trump on Paris climate accord

By Dino Grandoni
Staff writer
May 26, 2017
By Dino Grandoni
Staff writer
May 26, 2017
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THE LIGHTBULB

It seems like a fool's errand to try to predict when exactly President Trump will make a decision, but momentum seems to be building toward a call on whether the United States will stay in the Paris climate accord. Trump knows that his predecessor's landmark deal will be a prime topic of conversation at this weekend's G-7 summit.

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But with typical reality-show panache, Trump is keeping the content of his deliberations -- whether to stay or leave -- close to his chest. 

"He's interested to hear what the G-7 leaders have to say  about climate," Gary Cohn, director of the National Economic Council, told pool reporters on the president's overseas trip. He added: "He's heard arguments that are persuasive on both sides. They're both good arguments."

But contestants (i.e. other countries) have not been standing on the sidelines in this key debate, calculating that a decision may be imminent and that Trump often appears to be swayed by the last person with whom he spoke.

Here are four numbers that could make a difference in whether the president decides to stay in the Paris climate accord:

SIX: That's the number of other major economic powers -- Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom -- in attendance at the G-7 summit.

What are they saying to Trump? "I am very concerned that a U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement would cause lasting damage to the long-standing mutual trust and close cooperation between our two countries and between the U.S. and other countries in Europe and elsewhere," Germany’s environment minister, Barbara Hendricks, wrote in a May 5 letter to the administration.

Why it matters: The implicit threat from Europe is that withdrawing from Paris to fulfill one of Trump's domestic goals -- bolstering fossil-fuel production -- will get in the way of the U.S. government's other goals abroad, where nearly 200 other nations have signed on to the accord. Everything from cooperating to fight terrorism to renegotiating trade deals could become harder.

THIRTY-THREE: That's the number of Fortune 100 companies that support the Paris agreement, according to a head count by the investor advocacy group Ceres.

What are they saying to Trump? "By expanding markets for innovative clean technologies, the agreement generates jobs and economic growth. U.S. companies are well positioned to lead in these markets. Withdrawing from the agreement will limit our access to them and could expose us to retaliatory measures," a group of some of those firms, including Apple, Google and Morgan Stanley, wrote in a full-page newspaper ad earlier this month. The firms also note that reducing the effects of climate change mitigates business risk.

Why it matters: Many of the 33 Fortune firms supporting Paris are manufacturers (like General Motors) or energy companies (like Chevron) that need regulatory certainty in order to make business decisions and, ultimately, create jobs. These companies know there will be another Democratic president someday who most likely will push for a Paris-like international accord, just as President Obama did when he picked up the pieces of the Kyoto Protocol. They would rather stick to an agreement that sets only voluntary emissions targets.

TWENTY-TWO: That's the number of GOP senators who signed a letter asking Trump this week to withdraw from the agreement. 

What are they saying to Trump? The risk of litigation from environmental groups, should the United States stay in Paris but continue rolling back Obama-era greenhouse gas regulation is high on their list of concerns.

“Because of existing provisions within the Clean Air Act and others embedded in the Paris Agreement, remaining in it would subject the United States to significant litigation risk that could upend your Administration’s ability to fulfill its goal of rescinding the Clean Power Plan.  Accordingly, we strongly encourage you to make a clean break from the Paris Agreement," wrote the GOP senators.

Why it matters: To have a chance of passing health care and tax rewrites, Trump will need the cooperation of every member of the narrow GOP majority in the Senate. The opinion of Republicans -- and those of Environmental Protection Agency Secretary Scott Pruitt and Energy Secretary Rick Perry, among others -- will outweigh that of the 40 Senate Democrats, who, in their own letter to the president this week, urged him to stay in Paris. Trump has to keep the rest of the GOP happy to enact his agenda.

EIGHTEEN: That's the percentage of Republican voters who said they were worried "a great deal" about global warming, according to a Gallup survey in March. Two-thirds of Democrats said they were also greatly worried in that poll.

What are they saying to Trump? Gallup wrote: "Republicans are more in agreement than Democrats about how the subject of global warming is treated in the news: 66% say it is generally exaggerated... Eighty-five percent of Republicans do not think global warming will pose a serious threat to them or their way of life in their lifetime."

Why it matters: This may be the most important number. Even though concern over global warming is at a three-decade high in the United States, the partisan divide on the issue is vast. Trump needs the continued support of his base, especially with the mounting cloud of controversy surrounding the Russia investigation swallowing up Washington. His core voters don't care about Paris except for perhaps wanting to withdraw from it.

Here's some fun video and pictures from on the ground in Taormina, Italy:

From Howard Mortman of C-Span:

DECONSTRUCTION SITES

-- Over the past four months, some agency offices have undergone a rebranding effort that should make Trump proud. From my colleagues Lisa Rein and Chris Mooney: "As Trump sets new priorities for Washington sharply at odds with what the town has seen for the past eight years, some officials working on hot-button issues such as the environment, nutrition and foreign aid are changing the names of offices and programs that might draw skepticism from the conservative Republican leaders he has installed atop agencies.

"While entire departments are changing their missions under Trump, many of these rebranding efforts reflect a desire to blend in or escape notice, not a change in what officials do day-to-day — at least not yet, according to 19 current and former employees across the government, and nonprofit officials who receive federal funding."

Here are some telling nuggets from Chris and Lisa's story:

  • "In late April, the 'Energy Investor Center' replaced the Department of Energy’s 'Clean Energy Investment Center,' which was founded in early 2016 to help the private sector better learn how to put money into renewable technologies."
  • "The EPA’s 'Climate Ready Water Utilities' site was renamed 'Creating Resilient Water Utilities' — even before the inauguration, the timing of which suggests it was unlikely that Trump appointees were involved in the change.
  • "At the U.S. Forest Service, the banner atop the website of its Office of Sustainability and Climate Change dropped a single word — “change” — sometime after Feb. 1, according to the Internet Archive. It now says 'Sustainability and Climate' instead of 'Sustainability and Climate Change.'"
  • "A key Obama-era initiative at the Agriculture Department called 'Know Your Farmer, Know Your Food,' which brought together seven farm-to-table nutrition programs, was moved from the agency’s main website to an obscure one within the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service, where it appears under the blander 'Local & Regional Food Sector.' Instead of highlighting farmers markets, organic agriculture and a 'Farm to School' program, the site features 'Opportunities for Farmers and Ranchers' and guidance on 'Aggregating, Processing and Distributing.'"

 

OIL CHECK

-- On Thursday, OPEC agreed to keep production levels low for the next nine months.

The cartel of major oil-pumping nations is seeking to increase the price of petroleum -- less oil on the market means a higher price ber barrel. But with the United States edging ever closer to becoming a net export nation, the supply-and-demand chart OPEC has manipulated for more than half a century has been rewritten in the past decade. 

The Associated Press reports: "The problem for OPEC is that while crude sits substantially below the highs around $100 a barrel reached in 2014, it is high enough to bring back into the market U.S. producers who eased back as prices tumbled last year. U.S. shale production requires a higher price to be profitable compared with traditional crude oil. U.S. output since last year has increased by nearly a million barrels a day to a daily 9 million barrels. That already puts American producers in the league with oil giants Saudi Arabia and Russia and cuts further into OPEC’s past ability to play a role in setting prices and supplies."

-- China says it has stopped importing coal from North Korea. But witnesses at the China-North Korea border say otherwise. My Post colleague Anna Fifield reports: "China’s customs office reports that no coal was imported from North Korea in March or April. That would be consistent with the ban on all imports of coal from North Korea that Beijing announced in February, a move with the potential to inflict severe economic pain on the Kim regime in Pyongyang. Almost all of North Korea’s exports go to China, and coal makes up 40 percent of the total. But recent visitors to the Chinese-North Korean border report seeing coal trucks and trains crossing into China, and experts are not seeing signs that a major financial lifeline has suddenly severed."

-- Major investors may decided to turn the screws on ExxonMobil during the company's annual shareholders' meeting next week. The Wall Street Journal reports: "BlackRock Inc. and Vanguard Group are weighing a vote in favor of an investor proposal that would seek to pressure the oil giant to conduct a climate "stress test" to measure how regulations to reduce greenhouse gases and new energy technologies could impact the value of its oil assets, the people said. Exxon has urged investors to vote against the resolution. If the proposal passes at Exxon's annual meeting May 31, experts say it would be the strongest signal to date that investors are seeking greater disclosure of the threats that climate change could pose to businesses."

ALTERNATIVE UNIVERSE

On Trump’s chopping block is the most important climate solution you’ve never heard of (InsideClimate News)

How to turn an old coal mine into a big battery (Bloomberg)

Looking for Trump’s climate policy? Try the Energy Department. (The New York Times)

Wind energy's watershed moment (Axios)

THERMOMETER

For the first time in years, NOAA predicts an above-average hurricane season (Greg Porter)

So much water pulsed through a melting glacier that it warped the Earth's crust (Chris Mooney)

Scientists getting filthy rich on climate change? Here are the facts.

How did whales get so big? Paleontologists say they've figured it out. (Ben Guarino)

How to spot a misrepresentation about climate change (Amanda Erickson)

LOCAL ENVIRONS

As gas pipelines roil Virginia governor’s race, regulators backtrack on their role (Fenit Nirappil)

Remember that crazy hailstorm in Denver? It's going to be Colorado's costliest catastrophe. (Angela Fritz)

Storms create flash floods and collisions in Montgomery County (Clarence Williams)

Rising seas may wipe out these New Jersey towns, but they're still rated AAA (Bloomberg)

Feds block northern Minnesota mining project (The Hill)

DAYBOOK

Today

  • President Trump’s meetings with the G7 heads of state begin today in Sicily. Here's the agenda.

Coming up

  • The president’s G7 meetings will continue Saturday, and he will also visit some American troops stationed in Italy before heading back to Washington. 
  • Congress is off next week and will reconvene the week of June 5. 
EXTRA MILEAGE
Social videos show the Denver-area hailstorm on May 9 that has turned out to be Colorado's most expensive storm ever. (Video: The Washington Post)
Gerry Bell of The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shares helpful tips on how to prepare for the 2017 hurricane season. (Video: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
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