Even Democrats who have expressed reservations about the process are checking them at the party line and urging tense restraint with, in the words of Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.): “I’m waiting to see the agreement.”
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“There are some who say already they’re against it — there are some who say already they’re for it. I think both are premature,” said Schumer, who angled to give Congress oversight over the Iran deal despite the Obama administration’s opposition. As the No. 3 Senate Democrat and likely leader of his caucus in 2017, Schumer’s decision will be watched carefully by other Democrats.
“We’re all going to have to judge based on what the agreement is,” said Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), the Democrat who has been most openly critical of the process. “I’m sure that if it’s a bad agreement, I would expect Sen. Schumer to be with me and if it’s a good agreement I would expect to be with him in support of the agreement.”
Many Senate Democrats have their own concerns about the percolating deal to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions – if the inspections regime under a final agreement will be strong enough, if they will be able to trust the timing and phasing of sanctions relief. Many rank-and-file Democrats also say that while the White House is being fairly responsive to concerns and questions, they are primarily getting their information about the state of the negotiations from what they read in the news.
Negotiators in Vienna are expected to blow past a Thursday deadline to deliver the specifics of a finished agreement to Congress, which will trigger a 60-day review period for lawmakers that would have otherwise only been entitled to 30 days.
While there is substantively little else that changes at that point, Republicans have seized the moment to warn that the Obama administration is ready to give away the store in order to secure an historic deal for the president’s legacy.
“I think their absolute desperation will lead to a very bad agreement,” said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). “The longer there is to examine it, the more likely it is in my view for people to reject it.”
“It just seems like every day that goes by, we take what is already conceptually not good and take it to an even worse place,” said Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee and chief author of legislation to give Congress the chance to review any final deal.
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Obama made an effort to step in front of the political onslaught in a briefing with Senate Democrats Tuesday night, during which he assured them that he was ready to walk away from a bad deal, according to several senators present.
“The president was so reassuring, and I think people were very impressed with that,” said Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.). “I’m rooting for a good agreement and I’ve supported this, so maybe I’m seeing it through rose-colored glasses – but I felt in the room that people were glad the president raised it and that he went out of his way to say I’m not signing a bad agreement.”
It isn’t the first time the president has given such assurances to Democrats whose support he will need to sustain a deal. Majorities of both the Republican-led House and Senate are expected to vote to disapprove any deal. But if 34 senators side with Obama, it will be enough to keep Congress from overriding his veto.
Thus far though, the president doesn’t appear to be pushing Senate Democrats any further: Obama has not started actually lobbying Democrats for their support before the deal is done, senators said.
“There are open issues and they do not feel rushed to enter into an agreement that they feel is inconsistent with the framework,” said Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), the ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations committee, adding with a smile: “I fully expect he’ll be fully engaged if there’s an agreement.”
“This is a highly technical deal – they’re going to need some time, to get members of Congress, especially their friends, comfortable with the detailed inspection regime,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.).
As negotiations continue, it’s clear that many Democrats will be watching for the outcome warily. But even those carefully reserving judgment seemed unfazed by the fact that negotiators have missed self-imposed deadlines to continue talks – even if the extensions keep coming.
“If the extended talks get us to the point where we have an Iran that isn’t nuclear, that’s fine, extend them,” said Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.).
“The important thing is to get a deal that’s going to be beneficial to the United States, to the P5+1, and will deny Iran the ability to get a nuclear weapon,” said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.). “And if that takes a couple more weeks, I’m willing to wait that long.”