“His national race transfers to the state level in terms of fundraising,” said Paul strategist Doug Stafford.
Still, Paul’s fundraising suffered from the Kentucky Republican’s decision to simultaneously pursue the White House and Senate reelection in 2016.
After Republicans failed to take over Kentucky’s legislature in the 2014 midterms, Paul and the Kentucky Republican Party pursued a March 5 presidential caucus, which allowed Paul to seek two offices without changing the commonwealth’s law (the Senate primary will be held separately in May). As Paul’s presidential momentum slowed, the state party extracted a concession — a $250,000 donation from his campaigns, to defray the caucus’s cost.
Paul’s presidential campaign ended 2015 with $1.3 million cash-on-hand and almost $250,000 in debts, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission. It’s doubtful that Paul has since raised too much more — in fact, he might have only incurred more debt, so the presidential campaign cash will likely stay put for some time as bills are paid and a mandatory federal audit of takes place.
GOP leaders in Washington, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), had grown increasingly concerned about how little Paul was raising for his Senate race while running for president. Paul raised just $156,000 for the reelection race at home in the third quarter, a paltry sum that would not be enough for a competitive House race.
As of Sept. 30, 2015, the last report that was available on the Federal Election Commission web site, Paul had $1.4 million in his Senate war chest. By comparison, McConnell raised a total of $30 million for his 2014 reelection race.
The majority leader must also defend a slew of Republican incumbents up for reelection this year in blue states in a 2016 battlefield tilted toward Democrats, despite the GOP’s 54-46 Senate majority. McConnell seems to have urged Paul to look hard at his options, with National Republican Senatorial Committee Executive Director Ward Baker summoning aide Stafford in September to present weak poll numbers back home and urge him to refocus on getting reelected.
And as his presidential poll numbers continued to hover at the bottom of the GOP pack, Democrats tried to line up a top-tier challenger but struggled. Then last week Paul drew a wealthy Democratic foe before the Senate filing deadline: Lexington Mayor Jim Gray.
One Paul loyalist, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), is convinced Paul could stroll through any reelection.
“Rand’s favorable rating among Republicans is like six-to-one,” Massie told the Washington Post this week. “Leader McConnell’s is 2-1. And McConnell beat Alison Grimes by double digits. Even if you look at the general electorate, Rand is more popular with Democrats and Republicans than McConnell.”
Indeed, Kentucky is fertile ground for Republicans and independent analysts at The Cook Political Report and The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report rate Paul’s seat as safely in Republican hands.
Paul seemed to get a breather last November, when Democratic State Auditor Adam Edelen — who they hoped would challenge Paul in the Senate race — went down in a surprise Republican wave. “Not only has President Obama destroyed the party in Kentucky, he’s destroyed the bench,” Paul told the Washington Post at the time.
For a few weeks, the clamor to get Paul to pick one race and stick to it quieted.
But then Gray — the first openly gay mayor of Lexington helped bankroll his first mayoral bid with money from his family’s construction business — jumped in in late January.
And Monday, in a short interview before the Iowa caucuses, ex-Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) laughed at the idea that his son might be defeated by Gray.
“I don’t think he represents Kentucky values,” Paul said.
State Democrats monitoring Paul’s standing back home provided The Washington Post polling last fall showing his approval rating had fallen from 44 percent to 36 percent during his presidential race to that point. More ominously, Paul’s base had shrunk: Just 9 percent of Kentucky voters had a “very favorable” view of Paul, a smaller percentage than had such a view of President Obama.