The Washington Post

Mitt Romney’s most likely path to 270 electoral votes

Earlier today, we laid out what we believe is the most likely path for President Obama to win the 270 electoral votes he needs to be re-elected in five day time. Now, we do the same for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

Romney's path -- as we have long maintained -- must go through Ohio to have the air of plausibility to it. (There are ways to add Romney states up to 270 electoral votes without the Buckeye State but they require a bit of willing suspension of disbelief.)

The Romney map looks a lot like the map that gave George W. Bush a second term in 2004. In that race, Bush won the south -- up to and including Virginia, North Carolina and Florida -- swept the Plains and held his own in the Mountain West.

Romney's likely map in 2012 subtracts New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada -- all three of which he is currently trailing -- and adds New Hampshire from the Bush map.

Bush's map in 2004 won him 286 electoral votes. Romney's likeliest path nets him 279.


Chris Cillizza writes “The Fix,” a politics blog for the Washington Post. He also covers the White House.

The Freddie Gray case

Please provide a valid email address.

You’re all set!

Campaign 2016 Email Updates

Please provide a valid email address.

You’re all set!

Get Zika news by email

Please provide a valid email address.

You’re all set!
Show Comments
New Hampshire has voted. The Democrats debate on Thursday. Get caught up on the race.
The Post's Philip Rucker and Robert Costa say...
For Trump, the victory here was sweet vindication, showing that his atypical campaign could prevail largely on the power of celebrity and saturation media coverage. But there was also potential for concern in Tuesday's outcome. Trump faces doubts about his discipline as a candidate and whether he can build his support beyond the levels he has shown in the polls.
The Post's John Wagner and Anne Gearan say...
Hillary Clinton, who was declared the winner of the Iowa caucuses last week by the narrowest of margins, now finds herself struggling to right her once-formidable campaign against a self-described democratic socialist whom she has accused of selling pipe dreams to his supporters.
People have every right to be angry. But they're also hungry for solutions.
Hillary Clinton, in her New Hampshire primary night speech
I am going to be the greatest jobs president that God ever created.
Donald Trump, in his New Hampshire primary victory speech
Upcoming debates
Feb. 11: Democratic debate

on PBS, in Wisconsin

Feb 13: GOP debate

on CBS News, in South Carolina

Feb. 25: GOP debate

on CNN, in Houston, Texas

Campaign 2016
See results from N.H.

To keep reading, please enter your email address.

You’ll also receive from The Washington Post:
  • A free 6-week digital subscription
  • Our daily newsletter in your inbox

Please enter a valid email address

I have read and agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Please indicate agreement.

Thank you.

Check your inbox. We’ve sent an email explaining how to set up an account and activate your free digital subscription.