The Romney map looks a lot like the map that gave George W. Bush a second term in 2004. In that race, Bush won the south -- up to and including Virginia, North Carolina and Florida -- swept the Plains and held his own in the Mountain West.
Romney's likely map in 2012 subtracts New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada -- all three of which he is currently trailing -- and adds New Hampshire from the Bush map.
Bush's map in 2004 won him 286 electoral votes. Romney's likeliest path nets him 279.