The Washington PostDemocracy Dies in Darkness

What are the chances of a government shutdown? Better than 50-50.

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There's a 60 percent chance the government will shutdown for at least a few days at the of this month, according to budget expert Stan Collender.

"A shutdown may be what the [GOP] leadership has to allow to show their tea party people they're willing to go to the wall," Collender said in an interview for Post TV's "In Play" this week.

Collender added that the chances of the debt ceiling not being raised are far smaller -- in the "10 to 20 percent range."

The full interview is below.  And make sure to follow Stan on Twitter to get smarter in these next six weeks.