Here is what it has come to on the expansion of gay marriage across the United States: Gay people in Alabama can marry; gay people in Michigan cannot. If you don't consider that to be something rather unexpected, I might suggest that you spend some time reading a history of the American states.

There are only 13 states left that don't uniformly allow same-sex couples to marry. (That's assuming Alabama sorts out its more stubborn counties.) Unless the Supreme Court uses one of its pending cases to reverse the existing trend, one of those states will be the last to see same-sex couples wed. Or: Unless the Supreme Court allows gay marriage in all of them at once -- at which point the contest becomes between states that are slow to take the symbolic step of repealing impotent statutes (as Alabama was with its interracial marriage ban, which was voided in 2000).

But let's game this out. Which of the states with an existing prohibition will be the last to make the change? The contenders:

Arkansas

Current status: Decision overturning prohibition is under appeal.

Arkansas, in our estimation, seems less likely to be the last to allow gay marriage for the simple fact that it will be the subject of enormous scrutiny over the next two years. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton will be hard-pressed not to use as an example the state for which she served as first lady in discussions of the need to expand civil rights -- especially as she tries to demonstrate her commitment to the topic.
Odds it is last: 15-1

Georgia

Current status: Gay marriage is still banned.

Of the three states that haven't yet seen existing laws overturned, Georgia is the most moderate. It's still a red state in the Deep South, but it's got a more diverse population than Nebraska and North Dakota, and larger urban areas.
Odds it is last: 20-1

Kentucky

Current status: Case before the Supreme Court.

Kentucky is not as conservative as you probably expect. It's got a Democratic governor and is home to at least one Hollywood liberal. Can the wall barring same-sex couples from marrying withstand the social pressure that can be levied by Ashley Judd?
Odds it is last: 15-1

Louisiana

Current status: Decision overturning prohibition is under appeal.

Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) appeared on CNN on Tuesday to reiterate his personal opposition to same-sex marriage. Sitting -- no doubt somewhat uncomfortably -- under a large rainbow flag, Jindal said that he hoped the Supreme Court would back his state's decision to ban the practice. If Jindal is significantly further to the right on the subject than Louisiana on the whole, we would be surprised.
Odds it is last: 6-1

Michigan

Current status: Case before the Supreme Court.

Michigan might be home to the worst university in America, but its politics are usually more liberal than this issue might suggest. That's why we used it in the start of this article, up at the top of this page. (Scroll up to view it.)

We'll note, too, that the state briefly allowed gay couples to marry, until the practice was put on hold pending a court decision. Michigan has done it before; it's easy to assume it will do it again.
Odds it is last: 50-1

Mississippi

Current status: Decision overturning prohibition is under appeal.

Normally, we'd say that Mississippi would probably be the last to approve same-sex marriage, unless the last state to do so was Alabama. Which is another way of saying: Who knows! But it is still deep-red Mississippi, so we're giving it the best shot of being the last to allow the practice.
Odds it is last: 3-to-1

Missouri

Current status: Decision overturning prohibition is under appeal.

Missouri, too, has granted some same-sex marriage licenses, though, like Michigan, it was only temporary. Also worth noting, while still socially conservative, Missouri was formerly known as a swing state.
Odds it is last: 50-1

Nebraska

Current status: Gay marriage is still banned.

Nebraska is a very conservative state, but not ostentatiously so. This is as good a point as any to admit that a lot of our evaluations are based on vague generalities and not anything super concrete, so we just sort of assume that Nebraska wouldn't be happy about the arrival of gay marriage, but would then just grumble for a bit and keep doing its thing.
Odds it is last: 15-1

North Dakota

Current status: Gay marriage is still banned.

North Dakota is a large, lightly populated state that's generally pretty conservative. It has a Democratic senator, Heidi Heitkamp, who supports gay marriage. It's also seen a huge influx of new residents over the past few years, thanks to the booming oil industry. The extent to which those workers stay and, possibly, shift the state's politics one direction or the other, remains to be seen. A wild card.
Odds it is last: 10-1

Ohio

Current status: Case before the Supreme Court.

Ohio can never make up its mind whether it wants to embrace its status as a Midwestern, down-home-values state or as a state that's home to several large cities and a legacy of blue-collar Democratic politics. That's why it's so popular every four years. It seems unlikely that Ohio would be the last hold-out, though, particularly with a Supreme Court decision only a few months away.
Odds it is last: 30-1

South Dakota

Current status: Decision overturning prohibition is under appeal.

Similar to North Dakota, minus the population boom and the Democratic senator (but only as of last month).
Odds it is last: 10-1

Tennessee

Current status: Case before the Supreme Court.

It's hard to imagine a state that celebrates a city as energetically interesting as Memphis would hold out against gay marriage indefinitely. This is, however, the Bible Belt.
Odds it is last: 15-1

Texas

Current status: Decision overturning prohibition is under appeal.

Texas still has schoolkids sing a pledge of allegiance to the state flag every morning. Texas is the Cartman of American politics: It does what it wants.
Odds it is last: 4-1

And now, we leave it to you, humble, educated, handsome/beautiful reader of the Washington Post, to weigh in. Which state will be the last to approve same-sex marriage? If your collective wisdom proves to be correct, we will hold a giant pizza party at the Capitol on January 20, 2017. Contact us at that time for tickets.

Which state will be the last to allow same-sex marriage?

This is a non-scientific user poll. Results are not statistically valid and cannot be assumed to reflect the views of Washington Post users as a group or the general population.