Today Pence is radioactive, after botching the signing of Indiana's religious freedom law. Rather than spending the next few months -- or years -- stoking talk about his future national prospects, Pence and his team now have to spend all of their energy rehabbing his image in the state so he can win reelection in 2016.
Given that, we are taking Pence off of our list of the 10 Republicans we consider most likely to wind up as the GOP's presidential nominee against Hillary Clinton the Democratic standard-bearer in 2016. He is replaced in our rankings by Texas Gov. Rick Perry who, if you are looking for a long-ish shot that no one is really talking about but has at least a puncher's chance at the nomination, might fit the bill.
As always, the No. 1-ranked candidate below is considered the most likely to win the nomination. Enjoy!
10. Former Texas governor Rick Perry: He has an economic record in Texas that should be political gold. Of course, we said that same thing in 2012. Speaking of 2012, that's the Texas governor's biggest problem: Can he convince Republican voters who watched him implode three years ago that he deserves a second chance? (Previous ranking: N/A)
9. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal: Jindal is trying to find an issue on which he can break through and get more people to pay attention to him. He seized on the Indiana fight this week to go on a conservative talk radio binge to proclaim himself as the one true candidate in the developing race who has been on board with this issue for more than a week. Early returns would suggest it didn't take. Jindal is an intriguing profile -- Indian-American, two-term governor, Rhodes Scholar, former House member -- and no one doubts his brain power. But he's struggling to get people to look his way. Still. (Previous ranking: 8)
8. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee: Like Jindal, few Republicans were as vocal in support of Indiana’s religious freedom law over the past week as Huckabee, who of course relies on the support of Christian conservatives and remains steadfastly opposed to gay marriage. That’s a nice niche, but we still haven’t seen the former Arkansas governor doing the things he needs to to put together a winning campaign -- or even raise big money. (Previous ranking: 9)
7. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie: Nobody’s fortunes have fallen as much as Christie’s have. And it’s not just in New Jersey, either. A Washington Post-ABC News poll released this week showed his unfavorable rating (41 percent) slightly higher than his favorable rating (38 percent) ... among Republicans. That’s not exactly a winning recipe. We keep him this high because, more so than the people below him, we have seen Christie’s potential for winning. Of course, that was in 2012, and boy have things changed. (Previous ranking: 5)
6. Ohio Gov. John Kasich: John Kasich leads! In Ohio! That’s the finding of a new Quinnipiac University poll, which shows Kasich leading all comers in his home state, with 20 percent of the vote. But that’s about the only poll you’ll see Kasich really register in. For now, his candidacy is very much in the abstract. And with Bush in the race, is there really room for Kasich? (Previous ranking: 6)
5. Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.): Cruz had to be absolutely elated with the Washington Post-ABC News poll out this week that showed him running second in the GOP primary, behind only Jeb Bush. Some of that rise is directly related to the coverage Cruz got by (smartly) being the first candidate into the presidential race. What remains to be seen: Can Cruz expand beyond the 12-ish percent of the vote he's likely to have right now in each of the early voting states. And, if so, how? Plenty of Republicans aren't fans. (Previous ranking: 6)
4. Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.): Paul is expected to announce his candidacy on Tuesday, which would make him the second major GOP candidate in the race, after Cruz. And these two have already shown that they will tussle with each other. It makes sense. After all, both men are chasing both tea party and religious conservative voters in the 2016 race. There's probably only room for one of them. (Previous ranking: 4)
3. Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.): Rubio will formally enter the race shortly after Paul -- a week from Monday in Miami. Rubio seems to have concluded that he can raise the money he needs to mount a serious candidacy even with Bush in the running. And he has tremendous upside potential; the question is whether he turns into a star like Dirk Nowitzki or a bust like, say Jan Vesely. (Previous ranking: 3)
2. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: The Post-ABC poll showed Walker in third place, at 12 percent, but a new Fox News poll of the GOP primary shows him in first place. What’s clear: His standing in the polls is pretty darn good for a guy who isn't that well-known. In fact, the 41 percent of Republicans who have no opinion of Walker in the Post-ABC poll is higher than any other major candidate. (Previous ranking: 2)
1. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush: Bush leads in the new Post-ABC poll, but he’s also got problems. The poll shows 32 percent of Republicans and 50 percent of independents have an unfavorable opinion of him. Overall, his favorable/unfavorable split is 33/53 – 20 points underwater. There’s plenty of campaign ahead, but there’s something about Bush that is rubbing people wrong. (Previous ranking: 1)