The Washington PostDemocracy Dies in Darkness

Where’d the Warren vote in Iowa go? Among men, anywhere but Clinton.

Let's get one thing out of the way right off the bat. Quinnipiac University's new poll of Iowa Democrats has Hillary Rodham Clinton up by a mile, mile-and-a-half -- but Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) surging to 15 percent. We've seen candidates with recent campaign launches surge elsewhere, which partly explains the vibrant new Sanders.

But this is not the new 2008. Here was the Iowa polling in 2008 that eventually saw Clinton finish third.

And here's the same time period looking forward to the 2016 caucus.

I'm not in charge of calling elections here at The Post, but if I were, I'd be tempted.

The really interesting details of the new poll, though, emerge when you compare it with Quinnipiac's survey in February. Back then, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) was among the contenders. Because she wasn't included this time (having denied that she was running enough times that it finally stuck), her decent base of support had to go somewhere.

Overall, Warren's support -- 19 percent in February -- went largely to Sanders. But something amazing happens when you look at where support from "very" liberal voters and men went. Liberals split between Clinton and Sanders. Men split between Sanders and Vice President Biden.

The gut response here -- at least, my gut response -- was: That seems sexist. But! This support was probably (although not necessarily entirely) support for Elizabeth Warren. So, make of that what you will. And also notice that support for Clinton among men dropped -- and is now below 50 percent.

One state, a long way out. Clinton will win Iowa, almost certainly. But something may be going on here that should make Clinton's team raise an eyebrow.