Shortly before Donald Trump began his extended, extemporaneous delineation of why Donald Trump is great and is running for president, NH1.com dropped a bombshell: The race for the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire is closer than anyone might have thought.
A poll from Suffolk University Political Research Center still has Hillary Clinton in the lead -- but only by 10 points over Bernie Sanders. When we looked at this last week, Sanders was still upwards of 30 points back.
For NH1, Suffolk's David Paleologos outlined how Clinton and Sanders compared among several demographic groups.
The most alarming detail for Clinton likely isn't the split support by ideology. It's the split by gender.
We noted this last month, after Quinnipiac polls started asking about Sanders. Between April and May, support for Elizabeth Warren (who finally convinced everyone she wasn't running) was divvied up among the other Democrats. About half of Warren's support from liberals went to Clinton, a little more to Sanders. But about half of Warren's support among men went to Sanders -- and the other half to Biden.
(Anecdotally, I attended Clinton's event in New York on Saturday. The two people I spoke with who preferred Sanders? Older men.)
Sanders predicted that he would win New Hampshire earlier this month, a claim about which we were skeptical. In part, that's because New Hampshire has been a bulwark for the Clintons. Bill Clinton started his comeback in 1992 with a second-place finish in the state. In 2008, Hillary Clinton halted an apparent Obama tsunami with an unexpected win. But mostly we figured that it was a long shot because Clinton was up by a mile.
This is only one poll in which she isn't. That said, the same problems that appeared in Iowa appear here: Soft support from liberals and soft support from men.
Clinton will still win the nomination, almost certainly. After winning that nomination, her team better hope support from those voters gets stronger.