So, at the top, I'll link to these recipes for crow. The first is a crow and mushroom stew, which sounds completely horrifying. Step one? "Clean and cut crows into small portions and let them cook a short time in the lard/shortening in a saucepan, being careful not to brown them." Don't brown the crows, guys. The recipe for crow pie reminds you to remove the bones, a good tip for any pie-making.
Point being that I assumed that Donald Trump would probably pay some sort of penalty for his comments about John McCain and/or that his initial bounce would have faded by now. That doesn't seem to have happened. Ergo: Stew.
Over the past month, Trump has seen a huge spike in the Real Clear Politics polling average, an increase which he's maintained for the past week or so. (A critical note: The average only changes with new polls.) But who has suffered the most as Trump has risen?
If we compare each candidate's average to where it stood on June 26, when the Trump rise began in earnest, the pattern looks like this.
Jeb Bush actually tracked along with Trump for a while, but his post-announcement bump faded. He ended up in about the same place, as did Ted Cruz and Scott Walker.
Marco Rubio had been slipping in the polls even before the Trump surge, and that slide continued. Among the other victims: Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and Ben Carson.
This isn't a one-to-one change; it's not the case that Trump gained four percent of his support from Marco Rubio who saw the same decline. Or, at least, it's not possible to say that this is what happened conclusively. But this does tend to undermine any argument that Trump's base of support comes from a single group or ideology. If he gained from Huckabee, Rubio and Paul -- what's the common thread there?
But then what do I know? I'm just one guy, sitting over here eating crow stew.