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Donald Trump plows ahead in a new poll — but the best news belongs to John Kasich

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Teflon Donald Trump saw his support double in polls from Monmouth University over the past month -- comments about illegal Mexican immigrants/war heroes/everything else notwithstanding. Or, more likely, because of those comments and the reaction to them.

Our updated estimate of the Fox News debate stage on Thursday looks like this. Since the last poll that came out -- a whopping 24 hours ago -- not much has changed.

Ted Cruz moved up a bit, but that's about it. It seems pretty likely now that we have finalized our top 10, as Chris Christie's support in this new poll also doubled -- albeit only by two percentage points. That makes it unlikely that he'll get bounced out and might make him reconsider his critique of the Monmouth polls last week.

By now, there's a pretty well-defined stratification to the field. You can see it in the chart below.

There's Trump, and then there is Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, and then Marco Rubio-Mike Huckabee-Ben Carson-Rand Paul-Cruz, and then everyone else. That chart shows the polling change in the 11 days before and after John Kasich's announcement simply to point out how well-timed the announcement was. His poll bounce has lifted him to the surface of the maybe-in-maybe-out tier, which is exactly what he was hoping for.

If you compare the last Monmouth poll with the new one, a few things jump out: Trump's support skyrocketed, of course, and Walker's increased a fair amount. Bush sank a bit. (Reminder: Outside the gray area means a positive improvement in the polls or in favorability; the farther from the diagonal dividing line, the more the improvement or decline.)

Notice that favorability change, though. Rick Santorum's dropped a lot; Trump moved from negative to positive territory. And Kasich's roll-out meant that he saw an improvement. So did Walker and Rubio over the last month.

Santorum was once on the bubble, and even after one poll, once, was in the top 10. No more. The 10 are probably -- probably! -- set, in part because Perry's best poll is his oldest. And because the cutoff for polls to use in the five-poll average is Tuesday.

And at center stage on Thursday: the Teflon Donald. What a world.