So, right now, here's the deal. As a percentage of partisan Americans…
The math, which we looked at in May and in October, goes like this. Gallup surveys the country regularly to figure out how many Democrats, Republicans and partisan independents there are. In December so far, there are slightly more partisan Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents than Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Trump's lead in the Real Clear Politics' polling average has him still in the lead nationally, while Sanders has a slightly lower percent of support in the Democratic race.
So if you take the percentage of each partisan group and multiply it by the size of that group, we can get a rough estimate of how those with a partisan preference feel about the two candidates. (Hillary Clinton, who's locked up more than half of the support of the larger group of Democrats, has the most supporters nationally, as you might expect.)
As of writing, the numbers are as follows:
- Trump has 35.1 percent of the Republican vote, which is 41 percent of the country. That's about 14.4 percent of the U.S.
- Sanders has 31 percent of the Democratic vote, which is 46 percent of the country. That's about 14.3 percent.
Trump is higher -- but that will likely change, given how close it is. Trump slips a tiny bit or the party becomes that much more Democratic, and boom.
Which is why we made this tool. I mean, if you want to get into a knock-down, drag-out fight with someone over which outsider candidate has more support, it's important you have up-to-date numbers, right?