A slew of new polls over the past few days suggests that polling in the Republican primary in New Hampshire continues as it has been for a while: a big lead for Donald Trump and a giant plate of spaghetti underneath.

Here's the Real Clear Politics polling average since Sept. 1. Trump has led the entire time, and by a wide margin.

You can see that spaghetti: a big mix of various candidates jockeying to be the person that comes in distant second to the New York businessman.

It's important to remind everyone that polling in New Hampshire has been very volatile in the final weeks before the actual primary. Once Iowa holds its caucuses, many New Hampshire voters cement their opinions.

But Trump's lead is still both substantial and consistent. If he is to slump, it's not at all clear who benefits.

Here are the results of four polls of Republicans (and Republican-leaning independents) in New Hampshire conducted over the last week. It's a different way of looking at the graph above: big clusters of establishment candidates elbowing each other at around 10 percent. (Only those getting at least 5 percent in a poll are shown.)

The just-released poll from Monmouth University shows some change over the last few months: Chris Christie and John Kasich up three points, Jeb Bush down three, Ben Carson down a stunning 13. Trump's lead has grown so much, though, that it's not clear what difference those lower-tier numbers make. New Hampshire's supposed to be the place where establishment candidates prove their viability. Can Carly Fiorina survive if she comes in sixth there? Can Bush survive if he comes in seventh, as Monmouth has him?

If Trump crumples after Iowa, Cruz is the person who stands to benefit, according to the Monmouth survey. He's the second choice of a fifth of New Hampshire Republicans. That's a big "if," one that doesn't include whatever cataclysmic event it was that brought Trump down.

What the polling really shows is this: With less than a month until New Hampshire voters go to the polls, there's no establishment candidate that they overwhelmingly want to vote for. The establishment as a whole -- Christie plus Bush plus Rubio plus Kasich -- beats Trump, and even beats Trump plus Cruz. But separately, they're just a big plate of wet noodles, ready to be devoured.