Donald Trump's second-place finish in Iowa disappointed no one in the country more than Donald Trump. But that was Ted Cruz territory through-and-through: Lots of conservatives, lots of evangelicals and Trump got outplayed in a state where that matters.
New Hampshire is very different. It's a state with more independents, fewer conservatives and fewer evangelicals. (In Iowa, nearly two-thirds of Republicans identified that way, compared to a quarter in New Hampshire, according to preliminary exit polling reported by CNN.) So that meant that Trump could do poorly with conservatives and still triumph. And so he did, winning despite ... winning only a third of the "very conservative" vote. Among evangelical voters, Trump and Cruz were basically tied.
This was the scale of Trump's win. Trump won men, women, every age group, every ideology, people who had and people had not gone to college, and every single age bracket. And he won those groups by huge margins. Men, 3-to-1 over the second-place finisher. Women, 2-to-1. Voters under 30, 2-to-1. Nearly 4 in 10 of those who hadn't attended college -- but also a third of those who had.
Godzilla Trump, stomping his way across the state. How dominant was Trump? He tied John Kasich for the most support among people who think undocumented immigrants should receive amnesty. Given Trump's hard-line immigration stances, that's basically like saying that Donald Trump won voters who identify as not wanting to Make America Great Again. But they asked about that, too. Among voters who think that the next generation will be better off than today, the generation that will live through Trump's great America, he won 4 in 10 votes.
That's about as optimistic as Republicans got. Seven in 10 Republicans are "very worried" about the state of the economy, and Trump won their votes by a wide margin. Six in 10 are "very worried" about a terror attack, and Trump won them by more than 2-to-1. Four in 10 Republicans are angry at the government; Trump cleaned up there. About two-thirds supported Trump's proposed ban on Muslims coming into America, and he won three times as many votes from that group as the runner-up, Ted Cruz.
Trump's support was so deep that more Republicans said they'd be dissatisfied with Marco Rubio or Cruz winning the nomination than said that about Trump -- defying the common argument that Trump sees the most fervent opposition as well as support.
The only question that matters for Trump's opponents Tuesday night is how many other states can match New Hampshire's enthusiasm for Donald Trump. Any? Most? Trump can win states without winning the conservative vote or the evangelical vote, but if he wins those votes even as the field narrows -- and remember that it did narrow after Iowa, losing Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who each appealed to evangelicals -- that's a hard train to derail. Do other states have the same level of fear and anger, and do other states see Donald Trump as the response to those feelings?
As we noted earlier, Trump led in New Hampshire for the last 200 days. Among people who made up their minds months ago, he won 6 in 10 voters. Those who decided in the last month, Trump won a third of the vote. If they decided in the last few days, say, since the last debate, they preferred John Kasich, one of the few groups Kasich won.
Most notably, though, if they just decided on Tuesday, when they went to the polls, after Trump's disparagement of Ted Cruz and after that tide toward Kasich and all of the recent developments -- those voters that went to the polls today, who'd they pick?
With 1 out of every 4 of these votes, Donald Trump.