The earliest primary states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are predominantly white — in fact, they’re two of the whitest states in the nation. So those states weren’t great predictors of how Sanders might finish in more diverse states. But with the Nevada caucuses set for Saturday afternoon, and South Carolina looming next Saturday, we’re about to find out just his well Clinton’s “firewall” holds up.
If Clinton does win Nevada and South Carolina and carries a huge portion of the minority vote, she’ll appear to be in firm control of the race. But if Sanders wins Nevada — and especially if he does better than expected among black and Latino voters — it will be a signal that his appeal isn’t as limited to young, white and liberal voters as previously thought.