Then a now-standard Trump record-scratch: "But I think, I think I'm doing well with the women."
Trump isn't doing well with the women. In poll after poll, women prefer Hillary Clinton by wide margins. Even white women, a demographic that hasn't gone for a Democrat since 1996, have been leaning toward Clinton in a number of general election polls. Non-white voters, as you no doubt know, have been supporting Clinton by wide margins. The Times called white men without college degrees "the one demographic that is hurting Hillary Clinton," which is only a slight exaggeration.
So Trump doesn't know what's going on with women. But he doesn't need to look too far to understand the broader demographic splits: They're reflected in what we see at each party's convention.
Last week, we noted that the delegates to the Republican convention included fewer black people than any point in the past century. We reached out to the party to figure out how many Hispanic or Latino delegates were participating, and the number was higher, 133 to 18 black delegates. Fusion got data from the Democrats, allowing us to compare what percentage of each party's delegations were made up of people who were Hispanic or black.
This makes some sense, given the composition of the parties themselves. The most recent data on the composition of each party comes from Gallup a few years ago. The GOP is mostly white; the Democratic party is more diverse.
It's less revelatory to evaluate gender splits among delegates, in part because the parties stipulate that some party leadership slots be filled by men and women. But we can look to see who gets to speak during the convention as a way of evaluating that.
We looked at the primetime schedules of the Republicans and Democrats and tried to categorize those who spoke on stage by race or ethnicity and gender. This is tricky, at best, since trying to determine whether or not someone is Hispanic based on a simple biography is sure to lead to errors (and annoyance). Regardless, here's what we came up with.
(This analysis was completed after the second night of the Democratic convention.)
As a percentage of all speakers, the Democrats had more women than men and a much less-white line-up. More than half of those who spoke in prime-time for the Republicans were white men. Just over a quarter of the Democrats have been.
This maps neatly to the amount of support Trump and Clinton are seeing in the polls. Instead of looking at how many white and black voters back Clinton or Trump, we looked at how much of the support for Clinton or Trump was made up of white or black voters, according to the most recent Post/ABC News poll. Clinton's support is made up of more women than men and Trump's the opposite -- just as we saw on each convention stage. Very little of Trump's support is from black voters, just as very few of the delegates at the Republican convention were black. Hillary Clinton gets only about 30 percent of her support from white men when you look only at white and black voters, where as much more of Trump's support is from that group.
In other words, Donald Trump shouldn't have been too surprised that he was having more trouble with women voters than men. He could have simply looked at the stage during his convention and seen the imbalance -- just as Clinton's electoral challenge has been shown over the past two nights.