The numbers-obsessed Donald Trump dodged a bullet last week. His early bragging about the ratings for his party's convention was undermined a bit by the fact that the Democratic convention's viewership exceeded it on its first three nights. But on night four, the all-important night when Hillary Clinton and Trump both delivered their acceptance speeches, the Republican emerged victorious.
The media did report on it, of course, although such details have never factored heavily into the details of Trump's tweets.
There's only one problem: People liked Clinton's speech way better.
Gallup asked people how they felt about the conventions and the candidates' speeches. Forty-four percent of people said they thought Clinton's speech was "excellent" or "good," while 20 percent said it was "poor" or "terrible." Trump's speech was seen positively by 35 percent of people — and negatively by 36 percent.
On net, then, Clinton's speech was viewed about 24 points more positively than negatively. Trump's was seen about evenly positively and negatively. In Gallup's data going back to 1996, Trump's is the only one to be viewed negatively on net. He also had more than double the rate of people calling his speech "poor" or "terrible" than any speech prior to 2016.
In part that's because Democrats hated Trump's speech, and Republicans weren't blown away. In 2000, Republicans were 59 points on net more likely to say that George W. Bush's speech made them more likely to vote for him, while Democrats, on net, were 27 points less likely to. Trump got about the same bounce among Republicans, plus-60, but Democrats were 86 points less likely to support him on net after his speech. (Comparable figures for Clinton? Plus-72 with Democrats and minus-74 with Republicans.)
Overall, Trump's convention was more negatively viewed than Clinton's. In data going back to 1984, Trump's convention was the only one where people said on net that they were less likely to vote for the nominated candidate afterward. A majority of respondents, 51 percent, said they were less likely to vote for Trump after seeing his convention.
On Monday morning, we noted that the first major poll to come out after both conventions showed a seven-point shift in Clinton's favor.
One could argue that winning the ratings war wasn't an unalloyed positive for Donald Trump. Trump probably won't.