Why? Because poll after poll after poll — including one released by Quinnipiac University on Monday — suggest that in a four-way race that includes Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Clinton holds a very narrow lead over Trump. It's a lead more consistent with the other states that we rate toss-ups than the states we rate lean Democratic, which is where we've had Pennsylvania for some time now.
Moving Pennsylvania certainly helps Trump as its 20 electoral votes — if he can win them — give him some wiggle room in his still-narrow path to 270. But the question now is whether Trump's disastrously bad last seven days — beginning with the first presidential debate and ending today with a brutal AP story about his conduct toward women on the set of "The Apprentice" — will erase the gains he has made in Pennsylvania in recent weeks. (That same question goes for Colorado, Ohio and Florida, too.)
But, as of today, Pennsylvania looks like a toss-up. And that's very good news for Trump.
Here's our new map. And, below the map, check out all of the states that we rate as competitive today.
Toss-up (88 electoral votes)
North Carolina (15)
Lean Democratic (57 electoral votes)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)#
Lean Republican (33 electoral votes)
Arizona (11) Trump
Georgia (16) Trump
Iowa (6) Trump
# -- moved in favor of Republicans since last rankings