Luckily enough, Fox News was in the field polling voters from October 3 to 6, Monday through Thursday of last week. In other words, it released a national survey from right before the release of that 2005 hot-mic tape of Donald Trump casually discussing sexual assault. (Which occurred only one week ago, in case you were wondering how long the last few weeks of this campaign are going to feel.)

That's lucky because Fox News polled this week, too, letting us see how the tape (oh, and the second debate) might have shifted the race. The short answer is: A lot.

The topline is that Fox found Hillary Clinton jumping from a 2-point lead in a four-way race last week to a 7-point lead this one. That's a substantial increase, driven mostly by a collapse in Trump's support -- he went from 42 to 38 percent. That's been the recent pattern in polling, as the RealClearPolitics average shows.

That whistling sound you hear is the Trump campaign pulling a Sully in the Hudson River.

So where was the hot-mic damage done? Let's compare Fox polls!

We're going to be dealing here with some fairly small sub-groups in Fox's polls, which means larger margins of error, which means potentially bigger changes week over week. That's important to keep in mind.

And that said, there were big shifts to Clinton between the two Fox polls were among women broadly and among college-educated whites. One reason women moved more to Clinton than did men is that white men without college degrees were pushed even more toward the Republican nominee relative to last week.

Why? It's a good question. Trump's strategy of late has been consistently to double-down on the core base of his support. During the debate, he plucked every past possible Clinton conspiracy theory from the Breitbart archives and dropped them at the audience's feet. That's one possible reason that white men without degrees -- the heart of his support -- may have embraced him more tightly.

Clinton's favorability went up a bit over the week, particularly among white men with college degrees. Trump's sank, especially among those whites with degrees broadly.

Notice that evangelical support for Trump didn't budge much. This has already been the focus of analysis, but it's still unexpected given the nature of Trump's hot-mic comments.

Between the two polls, the percentage of people who said Trump is qualified to be president dropped from 45 to 42 percent, with the percent saying he was very qualified falling from 19 to 17 percent. We've seen in other polls that the main driver for that perception is negative views of Trump's temperament.

A week ago, people were 22 points more likely to say Trump didn't have the right temperament than to say he did. In the new poll, that jumped to 28 percent. Only among that same core base of support -- white men without degrees -- did Trump's temperament numbers improve.

A key question pollsters look at to assess where a race might land is asking people who they think will win (versus asking who they plan to support). A week ago, a third of voters though Trump was likely to win. This week, that dropped under a quarter -- and even his base lost confidence.

If the net effect of the next three weeks is that Trump manages to get his base of support to be more enthusiastic about him while pushing everyone else away, it's safe to assume that he will not, in fact, be the next president of the United States.