(This, it should be noted, isn't terribly surprising, because state races tend to be more immune to the kind of polarization that exists in federal politics. Republicans routinely win some dark-blue Northeastern states, while Democrats still win red states where they'd probably never win a Senate race these days.)
In fact, today we are moving two of the races mentioned above in the GOP's favor in our updated gubernatorial race ratings. Both North Carolina and Vermont are moving from “lean Democratic” to “toss-up.” We're keeping Montana at “lean Democratic” for now, but will keep an eye on it.
We now have four states in the “toss-up” category, and whichever party wins more of them will have gained seats in the 2016 election.
If that's Republicans, they will tie for the most governor's seats they have ever held, at 32. Currently, Republicans hold 31 governor's seats, to 18 for Democrats and one independent.
And the GOP has an opportunity to gain even more. In addition to Montana, Missouri and West Virginia loom as red states in which the GOP could legitimately steal Democratic-held seats. Polling in the latter two states has suggested a Democratic edge, but the GOP continues to insist they're very winnable.
Democrats, meanwhile, don't have anywhere to expand the map besides their two toss-up opportunities in North Carolina and Indiana. The only other GOP seats up this year are in Utah, where Gov. Gary R. Herbert (R) leads by 33 points, and North Dakota, where Republican Doug Burgum is a heavy favorite, too.
Much remains to play out, but it's not inconceivable that, in the year of Trump, the GOP could still set a record for Republican governors.
Amber Phillips contributed to this report.