Hillary Clinton has recovered from a brief dip in enthusiasm this weekend and now holds a narrow two-percentage-point edge over Donald Trump in the latest Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll.
Clinton fell behind Trump in strong enthusiasm in the Post-ABC poll over the weekend, with 43 percent of her supporters saying they were “very enthusiastic,” below Trump’s 53 percent and a larger gap than before the FBI announced it may review additional emails from her time as secretary of state.
Trump’s advantage in enthusiasm has shrunk to only two points in last two days of interviewing, with the share of Clinton and Trump supporters who are very enthusiastic standing at 51 percent and 53 percent, respectively.
In the horse race, Clinton stands at 47 percent support to Trump’s 45 percent among likely voters in the poll conducted Saturday through Tuesday, breaking an even split in the previous four-day rolling wave but far from a significant shift. Libertarian Gary Johnson’s support is unchanged at 3 percent for the past three waves — his lowest point in Post-ABC polls — while Jill Stein maintains 2 percent support. In a two-way contest with third-party candidates left out, Clinton holds a 49-47 edge, about the same as she’s held for the previous five days.
A bitter Republican primary season and the end of Bernie Sanders’s passion-filled campaign left open the question of how many would eventually turn out and support Trump and Clinton this fall, especially with the third-party candidacies of Johnson and Stein. The new poll finds evidence that both groups have largely come back within the party fold.
Among registered voters, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who wanted Sanders to win the primaries are slightly less apt to be “certain” to vote or to have already voted than Clinton backers (83 percent vs. 92 percent). But among those who are likely to vote, 82 percent of Sanders backers in the primaries support Clinton today, a number that has grown from a low of 68 percent in July. Another 8 percent support Trump, 3 percent pick Johnson and 5 percent choose Stein, while the rest have no opinion. For comparison, in 2008 the Post-ABC Tracking Poll found 82 percent of Hillary Clinton Democrats supporting Barack Obama’s candidacy, identical to the share of Sanders backers who support her today.
Non-Trump Republican registered voters are somewhat more engaged than Sanders backers, with 88 percent saying they are absolutely certain to vote and 60 percent following the election “very closely” (vs. 51 percent for Sanders Democrats). Among likely voters, 75 percent of non-Trump Republicans support him, while 15 percent support Clinton, 6 percent back Johnson and 1 percent support Stein.
Voters in these groups who support their party’s candidate do so with little enthusiasm — only 22 percent of non-Trump Republicans and 32 percent of Sanders Democrats say they are “very enthusiastic” about supporting Trump and Clinton, respectively.
Those numbers do mark a significant falloff from attitudes at this point in 2008 among voters who supported Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries — 47 percent of this group was very enthusiastic about supporting Obama.
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted on cellular and landline phones Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2016, among a random national sample of 1,767 likely voters and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.