Or put another way, I made this:
Four states are flagged with gold stars. Those are states where Donald Trump needs to win at least three: Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. If he wins all four, he wins the election. If he wins only two, he doesn't.
This isn't a polling model. It's the RCP average, which includes most recent polling in each state. (The figures above use the average of head-to-head polling.) It's subject to being yanked around by outlier polls. The average is only as good as the number and quality of polls it includes, as we've pointed out. In 2012, the polls -- and therefore the average -- often underestimated the margins of victory in the states.
Anyway! May this be a useful tool for you over the next few hours, as it has been for me. And how dare you question how obsessive we are about the state of the race! We will out-obsess anyone, anytime. Watch.