Under Trump's theory, the federal government will initially allot the billions needed to build the wall. But then, because he is such a good dealmaker, he will make clear to Mexico that if it wants to keep exporting goods to America without a significant tariff, then it had better reimburse us.
“When you understand that Mexico's economy is dependent upon U.S. consumers, Donald Trump has all the cards he needs to play,” Rep. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.), a prominent Trump supporter, said on CNN earlier this year. “On the trade negotiation side, I don't think it's that difficult for Donald Trump to convince Mexico that it's in their best interest to reimburse us for building the wall.”
That's a long shot — to say the least. Not only are U.S.-Mexico relations not in a good place at the moment, but there is also the possibility that the 2018 Mexican presidential election could produce a candidate even less inclined to deal with Trump. Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has been outspoken about his issues with Trump and the United States, is seen as the race's front-runner at the moment.
The most likely outcome of Trump's wall plan is that U.S. taxpayers will foot the bill for it, Mexico — maybe! — pays back a pittance of the overall cost, and Trump declares victory even though he has added significantly to the deficit to build the wall.
It is, of course, possible that Trump pulls off a miracle and convinces Mexico — despite the country's repeated denials — that it makes sense to pay for the wall. Trump was, after all, never supposed to win the Republican nomination, and no one thought he even had a chance in the general election against Hillary Clinton. And yet, here we are.
But the prevailing sentiment within Washington Republican circles is that a scenario like that coming to pass is very, very unlikely — meaning that, at the end of the day, the wall's construction will be paid for by taxpayers. McConnell's blunt response makes that belief plain. If congressional Republicans go forward with a wall-funding plan, they won't be able to argue they didn't know what they were getting themselves into.