The biggest takeaway from the Congressional Budget Office's analysis of Senate Republicans' health-care bill is this: Twenty-two million more Americans would be uninsured by 2026 compared with Obamacare.
Let's put in perspective just how massive that figure is. Twenty-two million people is equal to the total population of 16 states.
It's also equal to the population of the seven largest U.S. cities: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia and San Antonio. The uninsured rate is projected to nearly double over a decade, from 10 to 18 percent, according to the CBO.
That not only would reverse all the coverage gains made under the Affordable Care Act, but it also would leave more people uninsured than at the height of the Great Recession.
The CBO says the biggest driver of that change is the rollback of the Medicaid expansion. That, along with other cuts to Medicaid, would save the government nearly $800 billion over the next decade. But it would also leave 15 million more people uninsured who would have been enrolled in Medicaid otherwise.
The rest of the coverage loss — 7 million people — would come from changes made to the Obamacare marketplaces that are expected to make costs spike, especially for lower- and moderate-income people and older enrollees. For a 64-year-old making $26,500 per year, for instance, premiums would nearly quadruple.
But even for people who can still afford coverage, there's bad news: Their insurance would become less comprehensive. And in 2020, when the federal government cuts off cost-sharing subsidies for low-income people, the value of their health insurance plans will fall even further.
At this point, it’s unclear whether the Senate GOP’s bill will pass. Republicans will need almost all of their members to support it, but several senators have already expressed concern or outright opposition. A vote was expected Thursday, but was then pushed back until after the Senate's July 4th recess.