The even bigger concern, though, was about the cost of products. About three-quarters of voters — 73 percent — worried about the trade war's impact on them.
And that concern was even more pronounced in battleground House districts that will decide the 2018 election. In those districts, 78 percent said the trade war with China would be bad for the price of products. And even a solid majority of Republicans nationwide — 56 percent — shared this concern.
It's too early to say whether Trump's decision to start trade wars with the E.U., China and our North American neighbors will ultimately wind up being successful. Such judgments are for economists to make months and years down the line. They also must account for the overall economy and the many factors that play into it. And a couple or a dozen companies shuttering plants, laying people off or shifting production, while painful for real people in real time, could ostensibly be the cost of creating jobs in other industries or creating a better trade balance, which is Trump's stated goal.
This message actually appears to be coming through — at least for Trump's base. While Republicans worry about the cost of products by a 56-37 margin, they notably think the trade war with China will actually be good for U.S. jobs, by a 64-29 margin.
But that immediate pain is also the point, politically. We have a president who from his earliest days as president-elect hailed companies bringing home jobs as a sign of his prowess and glowed as companies announced employee bonuses in light of the GOP's tax cuts. However much credit Trump deserved for any of these events or however much difference those $1,000 bonuses made in people's lives, Trump saw an opportunity to demonstrate real, tangible progress for real people.
He's now experiencing the other side of that anecdotal coin. And now that the real and tangible isn't looking so good, he's lashing out. Trump has hit back at Harley Davidson for its announcement and even threatened to tax it. The message to other companies seems to be clear: Don't tell people that my tariffs are to blame for your bad economic news. I will punish you.
Layer on top of all this the fact that Trump is applying his tariffs not to a struggling economy, but to one that has been on a solid trajectory for years — and recently saw the unemployment rate tick below 4 percent. Given we're near what's traditionally been regarded as full employment, and given the stock market has shown in recent months that corrections may be in store, moments like now aren't a great time to rock the boat, politically speaking. Changing things up at this moment carries significantly more risk of reversing the current progress than potential credit for maintaining that progress.
And this and other polls, at the very least, suggest there is skepticism about Trump's approach. That's not to say it will be an electoral dud in November; it just means it's probably an unnecessary risk — and one that is fraught for a president who so often judges himself by anecdote.