One great predictor of whether a case is a serious candidate for summary reversal is whether it is a state-on-top habeas case, especially but not necessarily one arising under AEDPA. That’s not true of Horne, which is a takings case — not a typical summary reversal category.
But Horne does have three other qualities that I observed in summary reversal cases — first, it is a Ninth Circuit decision; second, it is a Ninth Circuit decision where Judge Reinhardt was on the panel; third, it is a case that has already been to the Court on the merits before, and therefore the Court is already familiar with and somewhat invested in it.
Does that mean it will be summarily reversed? I can’t really tell, and it would be foolhardy to claim that I could predict. But the request, and those three factors, seemed like they were at least worth noting.
Again, here’s the file.
[UPDATE: I posted it there, but I should post it here too: In the spirit of full disclosure I should note that Michael McConnell represents the raisin farmers, and he was once my boss, and remains a friend.]