We took a look at the trendline of crime over a period of years because Trump’s statement was quite broad, without qualifiers and part of comments that painted an overarching image of a nation in decline. . . .The AEI analysis looks at preliminary data for 2015, which we did not look at because it is fact preliminary and subject to revision. Two experts we checked with before publication warned us that such data may not be indicative of a real trend. Also, more pertinently for our purposes, Trump didn’t say that crime was rising “recently” or “in recent months” or “over the past year.” We would have turned to that data if he had.Finally, our fact-check acknowledged the point made in the AEI piece: that there are spikes in crime rates in some cities. However, that does not invalidate the overall trend of falling crime rates over the past 25 years.
July 5, 2016 at 4:41 PM EDT