If you looked only at the top-line numbers, today's new Washington Post-ABC News poll would seem to show a tight race. Obama leads Romney nationally by a razor-thin 49 percent to 47 percent. But if you only look at swing states, he's leading by double-digits: 52 percent to 41 percent. This discrepancy is explained by Romney's large margin in solid red states. He leads those by 14 points, 56 percent to 42 percent, while Obama leads solid Democratic states by only 10 points (53 percent to 43 percent). Some other poll highlights:

  • Romney voters are a little more set in their ways than Obama voters. Eighty-eight percent of Romney supporters say they'll "definitively" support him, compared to 84 percent of Obama supporters.
  • Obama voters are slightly more enthusiastic, but not by much. Ninety-one percent of Obama supporters say they're "very" or "somewhat" enthusiastic about supporting him, to Romney's 88 percent.
  • Obama's approval ratings aren't stunning. By a four-point margin (50 percent to 46 percent), voters approve of the job he's doing, but a plurality disapprove of his performance on jobs. His approval margin on international affairs is a tiny one percent, and a whopping 60 percent of voters think the country is on the "wrong track".
  • That said, voters aren't sure Romney will do much better. They're tied on the question of who'll handle the economy better, and Obama leads on health care, Medicare, international affairs and taxes. The only issue where voters trust Romney more than Obama is the deficit.
  • Obama also holds huge leads on social issues like abortion and gay marriage (14 points) as well as on women's issues (18 points). He holds a 10-point lead on "ability to handle a crisis" and a 14-point lead on handling terrorism. He also holds an enormous 33-point edge on likeability.
  • But the electorate seems more conservative on economic issues than their support of Obama suggests. Only 28 percent think the stimulus helped the economy, whereas 27 percent say it hurt and 43 percent say it hasn't made much of a difference. Fifty-one percent of voters say programs that help the poor mostly make them dependent on the government, compared to 43 percent who think they're an effective way to help those in need (those numbers are reversed when you ask about aid to unemployed, rather than poor people). By a nine-point margin, they think Romney's wealth is a net positive. 
  • That said, the electorate also wants, by a nine-point margin, policies to reduce inequality, and by an 18-point margin, thinks that those who don't pay income tax now shouldn't have to. That suggests that Romney's 47 percent remarks are hurting him, rather than tapping into middle-class frustration. By a two-point margin, voters don't think Romney is paying his fair share on taxes.
  • Most voters aren't feeling the election personally. Only 24 percent of voters have been contacted by an Obama representative and only 20 percent have been contacted by a Romney rep, indicating just how few states the election is concentrated in.
  • Obama continues to lead on intangible likeability factors. By wide margins, voters would rather have him over for dinner, as the captain of "a ship in a storm," as a contestant on "Dancing with the Stars," and they'd rather listen to his, rather than Romney's music playlist. They're tied on who parents would want to see babysit their children.
  • 52 percent to 40 percent, voters expect Obama to win.