The Washington Post

The 2012 Election in Numbers: Monday, Oct. 8

Obama attacks Romney's business dealings with China in a new ad.

Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Pew Research: Obama 45, Romney 49

Politico/GWU/Battleground: Obama 49, Romney 48

Gallup Tracking (post-debate): Obama 47, Romney 47

Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48, Romney 48

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Pennsylvania (Susquehanna): Obama 47, Romney 45

Colorado (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 49, Romney 48

Virginia (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 47

Iowa (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 49, Romney 47

Massachusetts (Western NE University): Obama 63, Romney 33

Race: Senate

Wisconsin Senate (PPP): Baldwin (D) 49, Thompson (R) 46

Florida Senate (WeAskAmerica): Nelson (D) 44, Mack (R) 44

Florida Senate (Rasmussen Reports): Nelson (D) 52, Mack (R) 41

Virginia Senate (PPP): Kaine (D) 51, Allen (R) 44

Ohio Senate (WeAskAmerica): Brown (D) 46, Mandel (R) 44


Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 332; Romney: 206


FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 307.6; Romney: 230.4

Chance of winning: Obama: 78.4 percent; Romney: 21.6 percent

Popular Vote: Obama: 51.0 percent; Romney: 47.9 percent

Senate prediction: Democrats: 51.9; Republicans: 48.1

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 82.7 percent; Republicans: 17.3 percent


Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 310; Romney: 228

Senate: 54 D/I, 46 R (95 percent CI: 51-56D/I)


Mitt Romney - $5 trillion

Mitt Romney - Melanie

Barack Obama - Policy

Barack Obama - Cameras

Barack Obama - Romney Put Profits From China Ahead of Security for America



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Brad Plumer · October 8, 2012

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