The Washington Post

The 2012 Election in Numbers: Wednesday, Oct. 24

Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Gallup: Romney 50, Obama 47

Rasmussen Reports: Romney 50, Obama 46

ABC News/Wash Post: Romney 49, Obama 48

IBD/TIPP: Romney 44, Obama 47

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Ohio (Time): Obama 49, Romney 44

Ohio (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 48, Romney 48

Ohio (SurveyUSA): Obama 47, Romney 44

New Hampshire (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 48, Romney 50

Nevada (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 50, Romney 48

Nevada (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 47

Connecticut (Quinnipiac): Obama 55, Romney 41

Massachusetts (WBUR/MassINC): Obama 56, Romney 36

Arkansas (The Arkansas Poll): Romney 58, Obama 31

Race: Senate

Massachusetts (WBUR/MassINC): Warren (D) 50, Brown 44

Ohio (Rasmussen Reports): Brown 48, Mandel (R) 44

Ohio (SurveyUSA): Brown 43, Mandel (R) 42

Connecticut (Quinnipiac): Murphy (D) 49, McMahon (R) 43

Nevada (PPP): Heller (R) 44, Berkley (D) 44


Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 332; Romney: 206


FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 288.3; Romney: 249.7

Chance of winning: Obama: 68.1%; Romney: 31.9%

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.0%; Romney: 48.9%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 52.4; Republicans: 47.6

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 87.6%; Republicans: 12.4%


Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 293; Romney: 245

Senate: 53 D/I, 47 R (95% CI: 52-55 D/I)


Mitt Romney — Momentum

Barack Obama — What He'll Do Barack Obama — El Voto Es Critíco Barack Obama — He's Got It Right Barack Obama — 537

Show Comments

To keep reading, please enter your email address.

You’ll also receive from The Washington Post:
  • A free 6-week digital subscription
  • Our daily newsletter in your inbox

Please enter a valid email address

I have read and agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Please indicate agreement.

Thank you.

Check your inbox. We’ve sent an email explaining how to set up an account and activate your free digital subscription.