The federal government is closed, and the day of reckoning for the nation's debt ceiling looms. If Congress does not raise the borrowing limit, in just 10 days (give or take) the U.S. Treasury won't be able to make good on its debt obligations. So, what are the odds this goes really badly? For clues, we look at some key financial market, survey and betting odds measures that capture what informed investors (and gamblers!) think about the prospect of a U.S. debt default.
The result: The Wonkblog Daily Default Dashboard. Here is the first edition, covering market activity as of Friday's market close. We'll keep updating as new information comes in. So far in Monday's trading session, markets are getting more nervous about the possibility of default. Check the latest Daily Dashboard here.