Jens Nordvig, a currency analyst at Nomura, has produced a useful chart for understanding how the government shutdown and debt ceiling standoff might go from here. His flow chart below both shows the possibilities and assigns his probability to each. The good news? Nordvig sees a 70 percent chance that there will be a solution or a short-term deal before Oct. 17, and virtually no chance the U.S. government will default on its debts. The bad news? Well, in that 30 percent outcome that there is no deal by Oct. 17, one would expect pretty serious disruptions to financial markets and consumer and business confidence as the risk the U.S. government does not meet its financial obligations looms.