The only thing about the NCAA tournament that is of any interest to anyone who is not currently wearing an item of clothing bearing the logo of a major university is the following: How do I win my bracket? The seeding system used to slot teams into the four regions is generally pretty decent; if you're in a small pool, it's usually a safe bet just to pick the higher seeded team.

But if you're in a big pool, you need some additional help. We pulled data on every pre-Final Four game since 1985 to put together this chart, showing where in each bracket upsets are most likely to happen. Since there's a difference between a 9-seed beating a 1-seed and it beating an 8-seed, we created the chart at right below to exclude "close" games.


But notice: The underdog wins in about half of the Elite Eight games (if you include a 2-seed beating a 1-seed as an underdog winner). And the 9-seed beats the 8-seed more than half the time. In general, the bigger the difference between the seedings, the less likely an upset. But not always. 12-seeds upset 5-seeds more often than 11-seeds upset 6-seeds.

Once you're into the Final Four, the seddings get a bit wonky. About 20 percent of the time, the final three games of the tournament end in upsets -- but those, again, are often 2-seeds beating 1-seeds.

Since we had the data, we also pulled numbers on the teams with the most upset wins and losses. Bear in mind: you can have multiple upset wins in one tournament, but only one upset loss.

Most wins since 1985

1. Villanova, 12 upsets

2. Uconn, 11 upsets

3. Arizona, 10 upsets

3. Michigan State, 10 upsets

3. Temple, 10 upsets

6. Butler, 9 upsets

6. Kansas, 9 upsets

6. Kentucky, 9 upsets

6. Michigan, 9 upsets

6. Syracuse, 9 upsets

Most losses since 1985

1. Duke, upset 20 times

2. Kansas, upset 14 times

2. Oklahoma, upset 14 times

4. Indiana, upset 13 times

4. UNC, upset 13 times

6. Arizona, upset 12 times

6. Illinois, upset 12 times

6. Kentucky, upset 12 times

6. Ohio State, upset 12 times

6. Syracuse, upset 12 times

We're talking about 30 tournaments since 1985. Which means that Duke has been eliminated in an upset loss two-thirds of the time over the last three decades. Maybe the seeding system is not as good as we at first suggested.